The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to provide governments with the most up to date assessments of the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change. The IPCC's assessments as provide the most authoritative and comprehensive view of climate change and informed the development of domestic climate policy and the UK position in international climate negotiations. For example, the Fourth Assessment Report provided the rationale for the Bali Action Plan and provided scientific knowledge to UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The preparation of scientific assessment reports is the primary activity of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The decision to prepare a Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was taken in 2008. In October 2009, it was decided that the report will comprise of contributions from the three IPCC working groups and a Synthesis Report which will integrate and synthesize the information from the working group reports. The Working Group I Report will address the physical science basis and will be finalized in September 2013. Working Group II will address impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities and Working Group III mitigation of climate change. The Reports of Working Groups II and III will be finalized in the spring of 2014 and the Synthesis Report in September 2014.
The UK has submitted to the IPCC its nomination of experts to contribute to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Following wide dissemination of a call for applications, experts put themselves forward to act as Convening Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors. A review of all applications was then conducted by a small panel of experts from DECC and elsewhere, to ensure they had relevant qualifications, expertise, knowledge and experience. All 154 applications were nominated.
The next stage is for the IPCC to consider the applications and to choose which roles the nominees will play. The IPCC will contact applicants individually once such decisions have been made.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Published in November 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘Fourth assessment report’ (AR4) is a landmark document on climate change. It presents comprehensive scientific information on the physical scientific basis, the impacts, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation of climate change. It includes many positive messages about the potential ways to tackle climate change, both in the short and long term.
As well as a summary for policy makers, the report covers six topics:
- observed changes and effects
- causes of change
- climate change and its impacts in the near and long term under different scenarios
- adaptation and mitigation options and responses and the inter-relationship with sustainable development
- long-term perspective
- major findings and uncertainties.
In summary, the report states that:
- our climate is changing, the role of human activities in warming the climate system is now clearer than ever, and the world is already committed to further warming from past emissions alone
- the global net effect of human activities since the pre-industrial era has been one of warming, substantially greater than natural warming or cooling effects such as solar changes and volcano activity over the same period
- without effective international effort, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow rapidly over the coming decades. Based on projections in the AR4 this will mean warming of between 1.1°C and 6.4°C by 2100 (relative to a 1990 average)
- as well as rising temperatures, we will also experience effects on the availability of food and water, human health, biodiversity and the economy. All areas of the world will be affected, but the scale of the impact will vary considerably by region and depend on existing vulnerability. The extent and severity of negative impacts will rise with temperatures, as will the risk of triggering major effects over which we will have little or no control
- an important new finding is the current and projected ocean acidification, due to increased carbon dioxide concentration
- there are five strong ‘reasons for concern’ for the international community. These include new evidence about the risks to specific communities and systems; more vulnerability to extreme weather; stronger evidence that the poorest countries will be most vulnerable to climate change; evidence that the risks of large-scale, irreversible events could hit the world if we continue as we are; the fact that all these point to the likely costs to our global economy from climate change being higher than ever. This would confirm the findings of the Stern review that the costs of doing little or nothing about this issue far outweigh the albeit substantial cost of doing all we can.
- a portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can reduce the overall risks associated with climate change. Adaptation is essential to reduce the effects of climate change and is the only way we can respond to the impacts from past emissions. But there are limits to what adaptation can do. Mitigation is the only real way to curb climate change
- global emissions must peak in the next decade or two and then decline to well below current levels by the middle of the 21st century if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. This is economically and technically feasible, and can be achieved with technologies that are already available. Postponing action to cut greenhouse gases will make it more difficult and costly to reduce emissions in the future, as well as creating higher risks of severe climate change impacts
- all sectors can contribute to cost-effective emission reductions, but a mix of policy instruments will also be required to make the most of this potential
- our actions in the next decade will have a large impact on our opportunities to avoid dangerous climate changes. Low-carbon technologies are available, but without global agreements on emissions and effective policies to put technologies in place, greenhouse gases will increase rapidly. Putting a price on carbon, so that polluters pay the price of their emissions, is critical. Governments must also invest in more research and development, to develop and refine technologies that meet our growing energy demands, while reducing our emissions.
Related links:
Key findings of the AR4 synthesis report.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change