What is it?
The UK and EU’s goal – now recognised by all countries following the 2010 UN climate summit in Cancun - is to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2°C. This is in order to prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change that are associated with higher levels of warming, recognising that we are already locked into an expected rise of 1.4°C above pre-industrial times due to past emissions still in the atmosphere.
Achieving this goal will require the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at a global scale. The UK and EU consider that, based on the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other recent assessments, emissions will need to peak by 2020 at the very latest and then fall to at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.
Why is it important?
Scientists believe that around 20% of species will become extinct if the 2°C threshold is exceeded. Higher levels of warming are likely to result in a wide range of harmful impacts including decreased cereal crop production, reduced fresh water resources, and increased risk of flooding and sea level rise.
Where are we now?
Following the 2009 Copenhagen summit, developed and developing countries accounting for 80% of global emissions came forward with mitigation targets or actions to 2020. These pledges are significant and could take us up to halfway towards a level consistent with putting the world on a cost-effective below 2°C pathway - but increased global action will be needed to narrow and then close the remaining emissions gap. There is also some continuing uncertainty about the precise level of mitigation that could be expected due to the diverse nature of the pledges tabled to date.
We still have time to strengthen our collective response and get back on track – the UN Environment Programme recently highlighted that there are economically affordable mitigation options that can bridge the gap - but the window is narrowing: and the International Energy Agency has highlighted the dangers of becoming locked-in by existing infrastructure to a high carbon future.
What can be achieved at Durban?
While we are not expecting countries to increase their individual mitigation pledges at Durban, this does not mean we are merely accepting the current level of ambition. We are pressing for a decision in Durban that recognises the scale of the emissions gap, identifies options to narrow it, and sets in place a process to further explore these options in addition to clarifying the existing proposals that are on the table.
In Durban we also need to build greater confidence in the way that emissions are measured and verified - through enhanced reporting by countries at more regular intervals - and underpin this with robust accounting rules so that we know that a tonne of carbon emissions is a tonne wherever it is produced and recorded. We also want to ratchet up pressure towards the 2013-15 Review of future ambition that was agreed in Cancun, and set in motion work with other countries to agree a firm timescale for the peaking of global emissions and a mitigation goal for 2050.
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