2050 Calculator
Lying behind the 2050 Web tool and My2050 is the data in the Excel 2050 Calculator. This is a more complex model, but it is open source and entirely transparent in displaying all of our supporting calculations and assumptions.
The Calculator will run on Microsoft Excel for PCs 2007 and 2010, and Microsoft Excel for Macs 2011, so older versions of Excel will not open it. Trial copies of the appropriate Excel versions are available to download from Microsoft.
Read the original analysis
The 2050 Pathways Analysis was first published in 2010, with experts from businesses, NGOs, technical fields and academics helping Government to produce the original work. Since then, both the Calculator tool and accompanying analysis have developed considerably, with the support of a wide range of stakeholders. Most recently, the Carbon Plan published in December 2011 used the Calculator to produce three futures that show some of the plausible routes towards meeting the 2050 target.
The 2050 futures published in the Carbon Plan were developed using the latest version of the Calculator, which for the first time included details on the cost and air quality impacts of pathways.
Full details of the costs and air quality methodology is set out in the wiki web site and in a separate paper on costs methodology and results.
Attempting to assess technology costs over a forty year period is an exceptionally difficult task. In recognition of this, the Government is seeking feedback on this analysis through a Call for Evidence with a deadline of 8th March 2012. We will be engaging with key stakeholders proactively, and all users are welcome to provide feedback on it via the wiki web site or by emailing 2050pathways@decc.gsi.gov.uk.
The 2050 Calculator shows that the total cost of the energy system today is £3,700/person/year and that if we do not tackle climate change, it could cost £4,682/person/year on average over the next forty years. This includes the capital, operating costs and fuel costs of the entire energy system (everything from: power stations and industrial processes; to cars, planes and trains and the fuel they use; to gas boilers and cavity wall insulation). These costs should not be confused with the bills households pay for their electricity and heating.
The total energy system cost of tackling climate change could be similar to doing nothing and may even be cheaper than remaining fossil fuel dependent (even if fossil fuel prices are not high). For example, taking action could save £84/person/year over the next forty years based on a pathway from the cost-optimising model, MARKAL. In the MARKAL pathway, energy use per person in 2050 is half today’s levels; around three quarters of this is due to uptake of more efficient technologies.
In March 2011, we released an update to the Calculator tool following a successful Call for Evidence that received over 100 responses from across the energy and climate change community. We also published 17 illustrative pathways that introduced some of the major themes of the dialogue about the potential merits of different pathways to 2050. This update built on the original pathways analysis report, published alongside the first version of the Calculator in July 2010.