Estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that, under a business as usual model, global gas demand will increase 42% between 2008 and 2030, from approximately 2,800bcm to 3,900bcm. Non-OECD countries account for 81% of this growth, with China and India both expected to grow at more than 5% per year (albeit from a low base).
Global gas production growth is expected to be driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries; OECD production is predicted to decline absolutely and proportionately from 37% of global production in 2007 to 27% in 2030. The proportion of Middle Eastern production is expected to increase from 12% to 19% over the same period, while Russia’s share is to fall from 21% to 18% (although it remains the single largest producer). More than 50% of present gas reserves are located in three countries: Russia (23%), Iran (16%) and Qatar (14%).
Unconventional gas
The rapid expansion of unconventional gas production in North America in the past few years has contributed to what some have referred to as a ‘gas glut’. Whether the North American experience can be replicated elsewhere is the subject of much speculation and uncertainty. For DECC to expand and deepen its evidence base on the global future for unconventional gas production, it collected the views of a wide range of experts including academic institutions, NGOs and private businesses. The responses were collected from October to December 2010.
Unconventional gas has been defined in this exercise as coal-bed methane, tight gas and shale gas.
DECC has sought views and information to better understand the following areas:
- sources of unconventional gas outside North America
- costs of developing unconventional gas compared to conventional gas
- key drivers of these costs
- barriers in each region to further development of unconventional gas
- location and size of existing planned projects
The responses we have received permission to publish, including answers to the questionnaire, comments and papers, are available below: